Forecasting is the estimated power expected (day head or hour ahead) to be generated from a wind turbine generator or a set of wind turbine generators/solar inverters which involves prediction of weather parameters at given geographical locations prediction which involves knowledge of the Wind speed/Sun´s path and the other atmospheric conditions. As per CERC Grid Code & DSM Amended Regulations order dated 07.08.2015 and respective SERC “Forecasting, Scheduling & Deviation Settlement mechanism for Wind/Solar Generators” regulations, every wind & solar generator needs to forecast their power generation on day ahead basis with maximum error limit allowed to be +/-15% of available capacity for which Manikaran Analytics Limited will act as Forecast Service Provider.
Beyond +/-15%, commercial implications (DSM) are applicable for which the generators are penalised.
Appropriate use of forecast for scheduling reduces the commercial impact for the wind and solar energy generators. By engaging a Coordinating Agency for short term forecast and ultra -short term forecast will definitely play an important role for generators in contributing for better planning and grid stability. Forecasting helps to manage the WTGs/Solar Panels maintenance time resulting in reduction losses, which will ultimately will lead to also Increase in revenue.
After forecasting is done, the schedules are prepared considering the availability of turbines/inverters for all 96 time blocks. These schedules has to be submitted to SLDC one day ahead of the generation for which Manikaran Analytics Limited will act as Qualified Coordinating Agency. We will submit the schedules to SLDC for each 15 minute time block on day ahead basis.
As per CERC and respective SERC regulations 16(sixteen) revisions for each schedule have been allowed for every 24 hours for which we will send the revisions as per changes in wind/solar generation (SCADA data) on behalf of the all the wind/solar generators (connected to a single pooling station) to SLDC. We shall submit all the revised schedules at least 1 hour ahead (4 time blocks) and also adhere to State wise accepted Scheduling practices.
Where any wind or solar energy generator fails to comply with the provision of mandatory scheduling, it shall be liable for penalty as may be decided by the appropriate Commission under section 142 of the Act.
Yes if you are connected to a pooling station or your individual capacity is meeting the criteria under respective SERC “Forecasting, Scheduling & Deviation Settlement mechanism for Wind/Solar Generators” regulations, then forecasting is compulsory for all turbines/inverters connected to that particular pooling station.
Yes you have the provision to choose different forecaster but you have to choose a single Qualified Coordinating Agency for a single pooling station. If you select us as your Forecaster and Coordinating Agency, it will yield the best results for you.
Practical, cost-effective service to clients - We deliver complete end-to-end solutions for Forecasting and Scheduling along with commercial settlement for wind farms/Solar parks across India.
Solutions which make a real difference - Robust forecast models based on both Physical and Statistical approaches and various NWP models and Geo-visualization tool for real time monitoring and analytical reports/Insights.
Experience - Experience of over a decade resulting in strong networking with SLDCs, DISCOM’s across India. We have a experienced team of Analysts, Statisticians, Energy modelers, Wind/Solar Resource, Software developers and 24*7 operation team.
The right team for the job - 24*7 operation team for continuous monitoring & deliverables.